Fews Net - East Africa
Food security is expected to improve between January and March as a result of increased livestock production and the anticipated above-average Deyr harvest in January/February. Some pastoral areas in both the southern and northern regions are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), while a majority of the country remains Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Riverine areas in Middle Shabelle are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December, as heavy rainfall, driven in part by the ongoing El Niño, led to flooding. The floods delayed planting, destroyed crops, and prevented households from accessing markets.
Agropastoral areas in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed will likely have below-average Gu/Karan long-cycle crop production in November/December as a result of a drier-than-usual April to July. These areas are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), even after the harvest.
Guban Pastoral livelihood zone received atypical, moderate rainfall in October and November, which increased pasture and water availability. However, poor households in this region will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) through March but only with the presence of humanitarian assistance. This is due to very dry conditions in 2014 and 2015, which resulted in low livestock production, reduced incomes due to low livestock values, and unusual livestock losses during the drought in 2015, likely in part due to the ongoing El Niño.