Pontus Marine

Monday, July 17, 2017

Somalia Food Security Outlook, June 2017 to January 2018

(RW) Key Messages
- In early May, FSNAU and FEWS NET released a joint alert warning that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would persist through June in agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, Northern Inland Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones and 3.2 million people would be in need of emergency humanitarian assistance.
Large-scale assistance was delivered in many areas in recent months and has mitigated more extreme outcomes. In several of these areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are now present, but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in areas where assistance is unable to reach rural populations in need.

 - An estimated 2.5 to 3 million people will remain in need of emergency humanitarian assistance though the end 2017. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected and in the event that there is significant interruption to current food assistance programs, prices rise sharply and household food access declines further, and an effective response to ongoing disease outbreaks is not implemented, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible. Of highest risk are agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool. The post-Gu assessment is ongoing and an updated estimate based on new data will be available in August.
  - Gu rainfall was well below average in many areas of Somalia and production is expected to be approximately 50 percent of normal, a third consecutive very poor harvest. In southern agricultural and agropastoral areas, the July/August Gu harvest and agricultural labor opportunities available in late 2017 will increase food access somewhat, but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist. Of greatest concern are agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, Southern Rainfed Agropastral of Lower Shabelle, and Southern Agropastoral of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiraan.




- In pastoral livelihood zones of greatest concern, including Northern Inland Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and Addun Pastoral, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through January. Poor households have few saleable livestock and no access to milk through September. Consumption will improve slightly between October and January, after a few goat births increase milk availability, but poor households will still lack access to sufficient income to purchase food. The results of a household economy approach (HEA) outcome analysis conducted by FEWS NET in June 2016 found that, even with coping strategies, households in Northern Inland Pastoral will face food consumption gaps throughout 2017.
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