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Rwanda - Kigali fears escalation of violence

(Africa Intelligence) - Following the commemoration of the Rwandan genocide on 7 April, President Paul Kagame played down the risk of a confrontation with Uganda on 8 April.

However, Rwandan officials remain concerned that Yoweri Museveni has been actively facilitating a rapprochement between the Rwandan National Congress opposition group - led by the former chief of staff of the Rwanda Defence Force, the dissident general Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa - and the Hutu rebels of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda . They are also fearful of the rapprochement between General Nyamwasa and the resolutely anti-Kagame officers of the Association France Turquoise who previously served in Operation Turquoise.

At the purely military level, Kigali fears that if the situation deteriorates further, Museveni, who is aware that his Ugandan infantry is no match for the RDF, may decide to deploy the Ugandan People Defence's Air Force, confident of Uganda's superiority in the air. According to our information, in order to prepare for such an eventuality, Kigali has ordered 25 batteries of surface-to-air missiles. Ugandan sources claim that a Russian delegation is due in Kigali in early May…



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